Now I know
that opinion polls are unreliable, we have had ample examples of this recently,
but I found the results of this Opinium poll perplexing.
The sample is just over two thousand (2,006) people, which is double what the
voting intentions polls are usually. It seems from this poll that the British
public are just as confused and unrealistic, as our political representatives
are.
The poll
showed that if there was another referendum a majority of 47% to 44% would vote
to remain in the EU. A clue to the reasons for this sentiment, seem to lie in
the other finding that 26% of Brexit voters think that they were misled during the
campaign. With only 19% of all respondents believing the campaign was truthful. The
leave campaign pledge to spend £350 million on the NHS was believed by only 35%
of leave voters and 16% of remain voters.
Despite this,
when asked whether there should be another referendum on the outcome of our
eventual Brexit settlement, only 37% agreed and 49% opposed the idea.
How can this
be? A majority of all voters now do not want to leave the EU, a big majority
think they were lied to in the campaign, but only a little over a third want
the chance to vote again, and almost half oppose the idea completely.
It seems as
though most voters have bought the idea put forward by the Tory government (and
the main opposition party, Labour), that we can have our cake and eat it. That
is, we can get a deal that allows access to the single market, the customs
union and to leave the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), and
put a limit on immigration from the EU.
The EU have made
it clear that this not possible, but people apparently refuse to believe it to
be the case. I have criticised the government and the Labour party many times
on this blog for being deluded over what is achievable as a Brexit deal, but it
looks as though they are behaving just as the public wants them to.
But, in yet another
twist, nearly half of respondents to this poll, or 47 per cent, said they
disapproved of the way Theresa May has handled the Brexit process, with only 28
per cent approving of her actions.
Perhaps with the dismal quality of last year’s referendum still fresh in the minds of the
public, they just want the result overturned by MPs? The only other rational
conclusion to draw from this poll is that the public are completely irrational.
The
government has started to release papers outlining what it wants from the
negotiations with the EU on our post Brexit status, with the latest one proposing a
new arrangement to replace the jurisdiction of the ECJ.
The paper
suggests more flexibility in the UK position on the ECJ. Almost a year ago, at
the Tory party conference, Theresa May, the Prime Minister, said that the UK
would not be subject to:
“supranational institutions that can override
national parliaments and courts”.
But this is exactly
what has been suggested in this week’s paper on the matter. It says that a new
supranational arrangement should be made, which will follow the rulings of the
ECJ, but not be called that. The government appears to be trying to replicate
the arrangement we have now with the EU, but give the appearance of being some
new, very different arrangement. We'll probably end up paying more to the EU as well, for the 'new' arrangement.
Rather than pretending that we are not leaving the
EU, but giving the arrangement a new name, surely the most
sensible thing to do, is to remain as we are and save everyone a lot of time and
money?
What looks to
be being advocated is only a matter of appearance, and no real substance. Will
the public be happy with this? That is anyone’s guess.
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