Written by Freddie
Daley and first published at Rapid
Transition Alliance
As the New
Year springs into action, with it comes a renewed sense of focus. Stepping into
2022, the world is entering the second year of a crucial decade for
transformative climate action. There are now only eight years remaining to
halve global emissions for a chance to stop global temperatures breaching
1.5°C. In terms of preventing the most catastrophic impacts of climate
breakdown, rapid transition is now the only option.
With this in
mind, the Rapid Transition Alliance team highlight here some key areas for the
year ahead, where momentum is building and change is happening. These combine
glimmers of evidence-based hope, with suggestions about ways in which they
can be scaled-up and accelerated to meet the challenge we face, and draw on our
growing resource-base of Stories
of Change.
1.
Renewables just keeping getting cheaper, while their polluting counterparts are
becoming less competitive
Last year was
another record-breaking year for renewable sources of energy – even in the face
of a global pandemic. As 2022 gets rolling, it’s set to be yet another bumper
year for wind and solar. The often conservative International
Energy Agency predicts that 2022 will see 280 GW of renewable capacity added
to global energy markets, marking another record breaking year. According to
this forecast, 55% of all the renewable capacity added in the year ahead will
come from solar. There’s reason to believe that the actual deployment of
renewable energy sources in 2022 will exceed predictions as forecasts
have consistently underestimated their take-up.
This is
happening for a number of reasons. Firstly, renewable energy costs are
plummeting making them the most economical choice of meeting energy demand.
Since 2009, the price of electricity from solar has declined by 89% with a
new solar plant now three times cheaper than a new coal plant. The price of
batteries too has
declined by 97% since 1991 and this trend shows no sign of
slowing.
Secondly,
fossil fuels are not getting any cheaper to find and extract. A robust study
from the Institute
for New Economic Thinking found that the forecast costs of oil, coal
and gas do not decline up to 2050, while the cost of renewables is set to
plummet further. The report
concludes that “exponentially decreasing costs and rapid exponentially
increasing deployment is different to anything observed in any other energy
technologies in the past, and positions renewables to challenge the dominance
of fossil fuels within a decade”.
But there are
still important caveats to be made. The most important is that an overwhelming
amount of fossil fuel reserves must stay in the ground never to be burnt – and
that’s where efforts in 2022 need to be focused. Momentum is building behind
businesses to pull out of large fossil fuel projects due to brave and
persistent climate campaigning, such
as Shell’s recent withdrawal from the massive Cambo oilfield. More is
required though such as furthering the Fossil
Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty as an international framework for
phasing out fossil fuels and funding a just transition in poorer countries.
2. Car-free
cities are going worldwide
Last year saw a
raft of car-free initiatives and pledges around the world. This year is set to
see these projects and initiatives move into 5th gear as towns, cities and
even individuals realise the benefits of going car-free.
But going
car-free isn’t just about ridding our cities of polluting cars, it’s also about
scaling up the alternatives. Over the past few years, towns and cities around the
world have been providing free
public transport to help clear the air and curtail tailpipe emissions.
Citizens and businesses are also backing
cargo bikes to replace inner city logistics, with the likes of Royal Mail
and the National Trust getting on their bikes.
For those road
miles that can’t be substituted by walking or cycling, electric vehicles are
eating up an increasing amount of the market share with 2022 set to be a bumper
year. Europe’s EV hotbed, Norway, recorded that nearly two-thirds of Norway’s
new car sales last year were electric. A
combination of taxes and subsidies, as well as accessible and abundant charging
infrastructure, has made choosing an EV the most economical choice in Norway.
3.
Widespread dietary change is on the table
A new year
always kicks off with Veganuary, where curious individuals make a plant-based
pledge for the first month of the year. But the
growing popularity of veganism extends far beyond the opening month of the year,
with a recent survey
finding that one-third of Americans are planning to eat more plant-based food
this year. The same
survey found that 30% of Americans said their perceptions of a
plant-based diet had changed for the better in just the last two years.
This shift in
perceptions is understandable given the proliferation of plant-based
alternatives, improvements in their quality and reductions in their cost,
making them far-more accessible to all. From milk
alternatives to fake
meats, these products are getting tastier and more popular faster than
anyone expected. In the UK alone, meat consumption
has fallen by 17% in the last decade and is expected to fall by 30% this decade,
without the help of any policy or financial incentives.
And it isn’t
just what we are eating that is changing – how it’s grown is too. The shocks
induced by COVID-19 have questioned the viability of lengthy, complex and
vulnerable supply chains. One recent study based on a pilot project in Brighton
found that urban
community growers within the city were able to harvest 1kg of fruit and
vegetables in a single season, putting their yields on par with a
conventional farm.
4. Climate
action remains at the top of the political agenda
This year is
set to see even more disruptive and inspiring climate action as the topic
remains firmly at the top of the public’s concern in nations around the world,
despite the ongoing pandemic. An international
survey of over a million people, across 50 countries, found that two-thirds of
people believe climate change is a “global emergency”. In the US, concern
over climate change remains at an all time high, with over half of US
citizens believing they are being harmed “right now” by climate impacts.
We are seeing
similar trends in Britain,
Sweden and China too where nearly half of people polled are
“extremely” or “very worried” about climate change and nearly 60% want to see
urgent action to address it. In Brazil, concerns
over climate change are even higher at 75%.
In some parts
of the world, these growing concerns are translating into political change. For
instance, Chile’s recent election saw environmental socialist Gabriel Boric win
power. His environmental policy programme and constitutional overhaul could set
the tone for 2022, with
plans to create a nationalised lithium mining industry, classify water as a
public good and enshrine the rights of nature into law. There’s also
rumours of a ‘double zero’ public transport policy – zero emissions and zero
cost – which could provide a blueprint for other countries.
5. Climate
activists given legal teeth
Last year was
another bumper year for climate litigation and 2022 is set to bring even more
wins in the courtroom. Climate activists are finally being given the legal
teeth they need to hold governments and powerful polluters to account, with the
likes of Shell and
the German
government losing in the court and forced to up their climate
ambitions.
Since 2015, the
number of climate-related cases going through the courts has doubled. As
the Rapid Transition Alliance has argued before, the increasing number and
frequency of climate litigation cases is creating a snowball effect.
Mounting legal precedents, a proliferation of collaboration across borders and
generations, as well as creeping corporate concern over reputational damage are
all contributing to a favourable environment for climate activists to court
change.
6.
Developing a just transition blueprint – the Green New Deal in action
The idea that
no-one should be left behind by the transition to a zero carbon economy has
taken root and 2022 is when we are set to see a variety of ‘just transition’
initiatives put into practice. Most exciting of which is the Just
Energy Transition Partnership, signed at COP26, launched by France, the US,
UK and EU to help stimulate a just transition in South Africa with $8.5 billion
in annual funding.
South Africa
provides the perfect testbed for a just transition as coal
makes up 90% of electricity generation and formally
employs roughly 1% of the population. One percent of employment may seem
small, but when unemployment is hovering at around 30%, alternative employment
is hard to come by. The potential jobs boost from a just transition is also
significant.
On the European
continent, EU
member states have given their final stamp of approval on a €17.5 billion Just
Transition Fund. The fund will be used to finance job seeking assistance,
up-skilling and reskilling, as well as the democratic inclusion of workers and
jobseekers as the continent’s economy shifts towards zero emissions. The fund
will also support micro-enterprises, business incubators, universities and
public research institutions, as well as investments in new energy
technologies, energy efficiency, and sustainable local mobility to stimulate a
broad societal transition.
This year is
also set to see even more nations
include just transition initiatives into their Nationally Determined
Contributions to help square equity
and urgency in the fight against climate breakdown.
7. Flying is
now very ‘pre-pandemic’
The global
pandemic saw planes grounded on runways around the world as restrictions were
put in place and people and businesses realised that working from home had a raft of
benefits. Even as the pandemic eases, our skies aren’t set to see the number of planes in
2019 until 2024. Flying is more likely to become the
exception, rather than the rule.
Nowhere is this
clearer than in the realm of business travel. One survey of 45 large businesses
in the US, Asia and Europe found that up to 84% of firms
plan to spend less on travel after the pandemic subsides, whenever that may be.
Some of the largest companies in the world – Google, Amazon and HSBC – each reported cost
savings from reduced business travel in the region of $1 billion. As around 90% of
corporate travel emissions come from air travel, cutting back
on air travel can deliver emissions cuts while improving firms’ bottom line.
Within
particular countries, there are also signs that climate concerns are shaping
public sentiment towards flying. A recent survey conducted in the UK
found 89% of respondents
supported the idea of raising the costs of air travel, particularly on frequent
fliers. For individuals that are keen on staying grounded in
2022, it is worth signing up to the
Flight Free 2022 pledge.
8. Moving on
from reckless consumerism
2022 is set to
see greater shifts away from overconsumption as
the backlash against fast fashion, low quality disposable electronics and
obsolescence disguised as friendly gadgets grows. For many companies, the
writing’s on the wall.
Lockdowns and
pandemic restrictions gave some people an abundance of time to turn their hands
to DIY and home maintenance. From this we have seen repair initiatives blossom,
with every town and village launching mask-making factories or repair cafes.
Not only did this save people money and reduce waste, there’s ample
scientific and neurological research too that shows
using our hands practically, be it for mending something old or creating
something new, can promote better mental health.
And this
growing consumer backlash is beginning to shift government policy too around
the right to repair. Last year the EU brought in rules obliging
manufacturers or importers to make a range of essential parts such as motors,
pumps, shock absorbers and springs available to professional repairers for up
to ten years after the last unit of any specific model was sold in the EU. We
expect more countries to follow suit in 2022.
9. A new
green internationalism will take hold
Progessive,
elected parliamentarians from around the world are beginning to work together
to get radical and transformative climate legislation passed as part of
the Global Alliance for
a Green New Deal. Currently made up of 27 elected
officials, this alliance is set to balloon in 2022 as people all around the
world demand urgent action to address the climate emergency.
The importance
of such an alliance cannot be understated. As net-zero pledges become almost
ubiquitous, the greatest danger facing our planet is no longer those that deny
the science of human-induced climate change, but those that acknowledge it but
delay meaningful action. This type of delay, according to Alex
Steffen, is predatory: it preys on our collective future by
profiting from the current status quo. 2022 must be the year that a Green New
Deal goes global to hold purportedly progressive governments’ feet to the fire
– that’s real leadership.
10. New
awareness that system change and behaviour change work together
For far too
long we have been sold a false dichotomy on climate change of individual behaviour
change versus system change. On one side were those
economists claiming that we can just ‘nudge’ enough individuals to curtail
emissions, while on the other were those saying it was system change or bust.
But the urgency
of the climate crisis, and the scale of change required to avert its worst
impacts, mean that we now need both: the privilege of choosing between the two
has long since passed – especially in wealthy nations. Fortunately, in reality
they work together as individuals and systems are inherently linked:
individuals are part of systems, but they also shape them too. As behaviours
change it becomes politically easier to deliver system change, which in turn
makes shifting behaviour easier too. The recent climate-satire film Don’t Look Up reminds us
that “individual action is sometimes seen as separate from systems change, or
simply not important. But we need both, and they are deeply connected”.
This year will bring more research and awareness-raising around this empowering
discovery.
Freddie Daley is currently working as a researcher at the University of Sussex exploring sustainable behaviour change, supply-side policies and the political economy of the climate crisis. He is also an activist with Green New Deal UK and has published opinion pieces on UK climate policy in OpenDemocracy and Tribune, amongst others.
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