The Green party polled 5% (up from 2% in 2010) across London
in the general election of 2015. This is the best result we have ever had in
the capital at a general election. Of London’s 73 constituencies, Greens saved
22 deposits (by gaining at least 5% of the vote) with the best result being in
Hackney North and Stoke Newington (14.6%). Admittedly, we had a pretty
disastrous result across London in 2010, but this still represents a real
stride forward for the Greens.
I hope other London Green Left supporters will blog about
the constituencies where they live, but for now I’m taking a look at Haringey
where I live.
The London Borough of Haringey has two general election
constituencies, Tottenham and Hornsey and Wood Green. We saved both deposits
for the first time ever this year. Both candidates and their campaign teams
worked very hard, but election outcomes are usually based on public mood
swings, and I think this election certainly had this element.
Hornsey and Wood
Green
2015 Result
Labour 50.9% +16.9%
Lib Dem 31.8% - 14.7%
Tory 9.3% - 7.4%
Green 5.4% + 3.2%
UKIP 2.2% + 2.2%
Although we have saved our deposit twice before here (2001 –
5.2%, 2005 - 5.0%), this is the best ever result for us in Hornsey and Wood
Green. The key factor in this constituency is that it is (was) a Labour/Lib Dem
marginal. The Lib Dems took the seat from Labour in 2005 (and retained it in
2010) in the wake of the Iraq war. Like all across London, (and indeed the
country) the Lib Dems had a bad election. So, it was no surprise to see Labour
regain this seat. The Green vote was consequently ‘squeezed’ by Labour (in
particular) and the Lib Dems. I did actually fancy us to do a bit better than
we did, but an eve of election opinion poll circulated by local 38 Degrees
members, showing the Lib Dems and Labour neck and neck, I think cost us a point
or two in the end.
There is something for the Greens to build upon here for
sure, and we have to chip away at the Labour and Lib Dem vote, and it is
perfectly possible that we can win a council seat or two in the future, and then
build further. Looking at recent council election results, Alexandra and Crouch
End wards are our best bet for advancement.
Tottenham
2015 Result
Labour 67.3% +8.0%
Tory
12.0% -2.9%
Green 9.2% +6.8%
Lib Dem 4.1% -13.6%
UKIP
3.6% +2.4%
TUSC 3.1% +0.5%
Tottenham is one the safest Labour seats in the country, so
it is no surprise that Labour won here (with a decent increase in vote share),
and the Lib Dems crashed, from second to fourth.
But take a look at the Green vote, 9.2%, up by 6.8% from
2010. We have never saved our deposit in Tottenham before, although we did run
it pretty close in 2001 and 2005. As I’ve observed before, the demographics of
Tottenham have changed, with young professionals moving into the area, because
of the relatively cheaper accommodation (for London). In the 2010 general
election the Lib Dems benefitted from this, but these voters have gone Green in
large numbers now.
There is several huge construction developments planned in
Tottenham for the coming years which will likely accelerate this process too.
As a party we oppose gentrification, but ironically, it will probably benefit
the Green vote.
This trend first became apparent at the 2014 council
elections when we scored 15% across the wards that constitute Tottenham, with
very little effort on our behalf. Previous to this, we would have expected
around 9 or 10% in these wards. Labour are clearly very strong in Tottenham,
but if we put more effort now into campaigning for the council elections in
2018, we could well win a council seat or two, maybe even better. Again looking
at recent council election results, St Ann’s and Tottenham Green or Tottenham
Hale wards look to be our best bets for advancement.
All in all a pretty good result for the Green party in
Haringey, and something to give us hope for the future.
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