Written
by Jeremy Brecher and first published at Labor Network for Sustainability
President
Donald Trump has refused
to commit to a peaceful transfer of power no matter who wins the
election. What is to be done if Trump loses the election but refuses to
concede? The purpose of this commentary is to stimulate discussion and
preparation for how to overcome such a Trump coup.
Even
before the 2016 election, Donald Trump hinted that if he lost he might not
accept the outcome. Now, far behind in the polls, Trump is taking action to
disrupt the 2020 election and laying obvious groundwork for refusing to leave
office if he loses. As this threat has moved from a hypothetical concern to an
immediate fear, the media have been filled with stories about Trumpite plans
for red state legislatures to overturn popular votes, destroy mail ballots, and
send in the military to quell demonstrators defending the vote.
But
reports have also begun appearing about plans to defend the ballot and resist a
Trump Coup d’état – an “executive usurpation” sometimes referred to as a
“self-coup.”(1) This commentary gives a brief historical
background on the effective use of “people power” to contest coups and stolen
elections and reviews recent writing and organizing against a Trump Coup. It
presents resistance to a Trump Coup not as primarily a matter of Biden vs.
Trump or Democrats vs. Republicans, but rather as Social Self-Defense — a
defense of society against an attack on the very things that make our life
together possible.(2)
Anti-Coups
Have Succeeded
Tyrannical
regimes from Serbia to the Philippines to Brazil and many other places have
been brought down by “people power” — nonviolent revolts that made society
ungovernable and led to regime change. While the U.S. has a strong tradition of
social movements based on people power, it does not have a tradition of using
mass action and general strikes for the defense of democracy. However, in other
countries where democratic institutions have been so weakened or eliminated
that they provide no alternative to tyranny, such methods have emerged and been
used effectively.
There
is now an extensive literature analyzing popular resistance to subversion of
elections and other forms of coup d’état. The pioneer of such research was
theorist and historian of nonviolence Gene Sharp. His Waging Nonviolent
Struggle provides extensive analysis and many case studies of
effective nonviolent resistance; his The Anti-Coup focuses in
on the use of these methods against illegal seizures of government power.(3) It proposes such guidelines as:
- Repudiate
the coup and denounce its leaders as illegitimate
- Regard
all decrees and orders from the coup leaders contradicting established law as
illegal and refuse to obey them
- Keep
all resistance strictly nonviolent – refuse to be provoked into violence
- Noncooperate
with the coup leaders in all ways
Steven
Zunes’ Civil Resistance Against Coups analyzes the resistance
to twelve coups and provides an expanded theoretical framework.(4) Sharp and Zunes provide invaluable
background for anyone who contemplates resisting a possible Trump coup. Here
are two examples that involve popular resistance to coups that utilized stolen
elections:
In
1988, despite the circumventing of electoral laws, repression of universities
and media, and ethnic cleansing, Serbia under Slobodan Milosevic was still
holding elections of a sort. An activist group called Otpor formed around the
goal of driving Milosevic from power and began hundreds of small actions of
resistance around the country to counter pervasive fear of the regime.
Its
plan was that activists would compel the regime to call elections; they would
create massive turnout around a united opposition candidate; they would join
other nongovernmental organizations in carefully monitoring election results so
they could document their victory; and they would use mass noncompliance –
leading up to a general strike – if and when Milosevic refused to step down.
In
2000, Otpor pushed 18 of Serbia’s squabbling opposition parties to form a
coalition to support a unity candidate, promising to deliver 500,000 votes to
the unity candidate but threatening to put 100,000 protesters at the door of
any politician who betrayed the coalition. As elections approached, the regime
called Otpor an “illegal terrorist organization”; police raided its offices and
shut down independent radio and TV stations; each day an average of seven
activists were arrested.
Meanwhile,
the opposition organized ten thousand election monitors. They announced exit
polls showing Milosevic had been defeated by a 50% to 35% margin. Instead of
accepting the results, Milosevic refused to leave office and demanded a run-off
election.
Otpor
announced a deadline for Milosevic to concede and 200,000 people demonstrated
in Belgrade. The opposition called on the population throughout the country to
“perform any acts of civil disobedience they have at their disposal.” Miners
struck; TV and radio stations opened their airwaves to opposition voices.
As the deadline approached, cars and trucks filled the highways heading toward
Belgrade.
Police
put up roadblocks and were issued orders to shoot, but seeing the size of the
convoys they abandoned their barricades. Half-a-million people gathered in
Belgrade. Police fired tear gas, but when the crowd stood its ground riot
police began running away or joining the crowd. The opposition candidate
declared victory and Milosevic accepted his defeat.
There
are many other cases where popular action has forestalled or reversed efforts
to subvert the outcome of a democratic election. After the assassination of
opposition leader Benigno Aquino, Jr. in 1983, Philippine dictator Ferdinand
Marcos met growing protests.
Marcos
called a presidential election to be held in February, 1986. Aquino’s widow
Corazon Aquino was backed by all major opposition parties. Marcos’ campaign
included vote-buying and the murder of more than 70 opposition workers. On
election day casting of fake ballots and falsification of returns was widely
witnessed.
Marcos
claimed victory, but Mrs. Aquino met with opposition leaders and proposed a
long nonviolent campaign of what she dubbed “people power.” Top military
officers resigned, withdrew support from Marcos, recognized Aquino as the
legitimate winner, and fled to military camps in Manilla. The city’s Roman
Catholic Church leader appealed
on nationwide radio for people to nonviolently protect the officers and prevent
bloodshed.
By
midnight 50,000 surrounded the camps; two days later it was more than a
million. Marcos ordered tanks and armored transports to attack. Nuns knelt in
front of the tanks and priests climbed on them and led a million protesters –
plus soldiers – in prayer. The troops turned back. Next day Marcos ordered
another assault, but the commanding officer ordered his troops to return to
their base. The military rebels announced that ninety percent of the Armed
Forces had defected. Large crowds took over the government television station.
The
next day Marcos fled the country and Aquino was inaugurated president. Ever
after mass nonviolent direct action has been known around the world as “People
power.”(5)
How
the Trump Coup Is Unfolding
This
summer a group called the Transition Integrity Project held a series of “war
games” with more than 100 current and former senior government and campaign
leaders and other experts to review possible scenarios for the upcoming
election and presidential transition. The result:
We
assess with a high degree of likelihood that November’s elections will be
marked by a chaotic legal and political landscape. We also assess that
President Trump is likely to contest the result by both legal and extra-legal
means, in an attempt to hold onto power. Recent events, including the
President’s own unwillingness to commit to abiding by the results of the
election, the Attorney General’s embrace of the President’s groundless
electoral fraud claims, and the unprecedented deployment of federal agents to
put down leftwing protests, underscore the extreme lengths to which President
Trump may be willing to go in order to stay in office.
Their
likely scenarios included: Trump’s refusal to concede; Attorney General William
Barr opening investigation of vote-by-mail fraud allegations and Democratic
ties to antifa; and rival selection of pro-Trump electoral college slates by
Republican state legislatures. Meanwhile Trump would call for armed supporters
to challenge pro-Biden demonstrators, leading to multiple killings of
demonstrators; Trump says he will invoke the Insurrection Act to teach
anti-American terrorists a lesson. All this before Thanksgiving.
Except
in the case of a big Biden win, each scenario “reached the brink of
catastrophe, with massive disinformation campaigns, violence in the streets and
a constitutional impasse.” In two of the scenarios there was no agreement on
the winner by Inauguration Day.(6)
An
extended article in The Atlantic by Barton Gellman released in
late September presented evidence that Trump and Republican officials are
already laying the groundwork for such scenarios. The disruption of the Post
Office and the plans to intimidate voters and prevent full vote counting are
already under way. Gellman maintains that after election day, “Donald Trump may
win or lose, but he will never concede,” and that he may “obstruct the
emergence of a legally unambiguous victory for Biden in the Electoral College
and then in the Congress.”
Preparations
are already being made for red state legislators to replace elected members of
the Electoral College with their own appointees. Barton spells out in detail
this and many other strategies available and likely to be used to prevent a
losing President Trump from being forced to leave office.(7)
How
to Overcome a Trump Coup
In
late September, four movement activists and experts on civil resistance issued
a manual called Hold the Line: A Guide to Defending Democracy.
Reminiscent of the Indivisible manual that helped launch the
resistance to Trump in 2016, it presents a detailed plan for locally-based
resistance to a Trump Coup.(8) It lays out various scenarios in which
Trump refuses to leave office. It calls for forming community-based “election
protection” groups. These can start immediately with meetings by a small core
group that develops a response plan and recruits others to participate in it.
These
groups will “hold the line” that all votes must be counted; all irregularities
must be investigated impartially and remedied; and election results must be
respected, regardless of who wins. Public officials can be called on in advance
to state their commitment to these principles. Violation of these “Red Lines”
by Trump or other officials will trigger these groups into action.
The
guide provides sample meeting agendas, templates for “Power Maps” of forces to
influence, tactics “brainstorming sheets,” and other planning tools. It
outlines targeted action to “undermine the pillars of support” for an illegal
Trump regime. It calls for mass popular mobilization based on disciplined
nonviolence because “violence will backfire badly against the side that uses
it.”
It
discusses tactics including displaying symbols of protest; engaging in
demonstrations, marches, and nonviolent blockades; strikes of all kinds;
deliberate work slowdowns; boycotts of all kinds; divestment; refusing to pay
certain fees, bills, taxes, or other costs; or refusal to observe certain
expected social norms or behaviors.
Trade
unionists Bill Fletcher, Jr. and Jose La Luz have made a related proposal for
organized labor to establish “pro-democracy volunteer brigades” in preparation
for the election.
We
need volunteers who will assist with voter registration; mobilize in large
numbers should law enforcement and right-wing militias show up at polling
places in order to intimidate voters; block the right-wing from challenging
legitimate voters and ballots; and lay the groundwork for massive civil
disobedience should the Trump administration attempt to forestall the elections
and/or refuse to recognize the results.(9)
Organizing
So Far Against a Trump Coup
The
Trump presidency has been an era of mass resistance, an upwelling of direct
action that came to be known as the Trump Resistance or simply The Resistance.
A social science organization called the Crowd Counting Consortium listed more
than eighty-seven hundred protests with six to nine million participants in the
first year of the Trump administration, 90 percent opposing Trump’s agenda.(10) The Black Lives Matter protests following
the 2020 murder of George Floyd constituted the largest mass uprising in the
U.S. in half a century with an estimated 15 to 26 million participants.(11) The base for contesting a Trump Coup is
already in motion.
At
the start of September, a coalition of 50 organizations called the Fight Back
Table, which includes Service Employees International Union, the American
Federation of Teachers, Color of Change, Indivisible, and MoveOn, established a
post-election planning vehicle called the Democracy Defense Nerve Center.
Taking off from the Transition Integrity Project war games, they have begun to
chart out what it would take to stand up a multi-state communications arm to
fight disinformation, a training program for nonviolent civil disobedience, and
the underpinnings of what one official described as “mass public unrest.”
They
began to struggle with such questions as how do you maintain sustained strikes
and occupations and what do you do if armed right-wing militias show up at
polling places?(12)
A
number of other groups have been mobilizing to forestall or overcome a Trump
coup. Protect the Results, a
joint project of Indivisible and Stand Up America supported by 80 other groups,
is planning mass mobilization in more than 1,000 locations.(13) Keep Our Republic is
organizing to support a “civic creed” to “Let all citizens vote. Let all votes
be counted. Let the count stand.”
The
group Peoples Strike has issued a Pledge of Resistance committing to occupy
civic squares on Wednesday, November 4th, to occupy state capitols
on Saturday, November 7th, and to engage in “strategic rolling
strikes” thereafter. No doubt other preparations are under way as well.
Other
sectors of society are also beginning to consider what their responsibilities
will be if Trump refuses to concede electoral defeat. On September 25 AFL-CIO
President Richard Trumka released this statement about the post-election
transition:
The
AFL-CIO categorically rejects all threats to the peaceful transition of power.
The labor movement simply will not allow any breach of the U.S. Constitution or
other effort to deny the will of the people. Union members across the political
spectrum are united in our fundamental belief that the votes of the American
people must always determine the presidency. America’s workers will continue to
be steadfast in defense of our democracy in the face of President Trump’s
antics, and we stand ready to do our part to ensure his defeat in this election
is followed by his removal from office.(14)
A
recent New York Times article reported that:
senior
leaders at the Pentagon, speaking on the condition of anonymity, acknowledged
that they were talking among themselves about what to do if Mr. Trump, who will
still be president from Election Day to Inauguration Day, invokes the
Insurrection Act and tries to send troops into the streets, as he threatened to
do during the protests against police brutality and systemic racism.(15)
Several
Pentagon officials said there could be resignations among many of Mr. Trump’s
senior generals, starting at the top with chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
General Mark A. Milley, should troops be ordered into the streets at the time
of the election. As we have seen in the opposition to the Serbian and
Philippine electoral coups, the role of various sectors and levels of the
military – from the brass to the privates — can be critical.
But
as revealed by the top brass’ second thoughts after the military was called in
to provide Trump a photo op confrontation in Lafayette Square during a June
Black Lives Matter demonstration, they are most likely to come to a sense of
their responsibilities when they are called on to suppress peaceful protestors
in the interests of a tyrant.
Social
Self-Defense
Resisting
the rise of tyranny will no doubt require sacrifice. After all, we are dealing
with an aspiring tyrant who lionizes someone who shoots down demonstrators in
the street. But that sacrifice will not be primarily on behalf of one political
party vs. another, of Democrats vs. Republicans. It will be a defense of democracy
– defense of government of the people, by the people, and for the people.
Beyond
that, it is the protection of that which makes our life together on earth
possible. It is defense of the human rights of all people; of the conditions of
our earth and its climate that make our life possible; of the constitutional
principle that government must be accountable to law; of global cooperation to
provide a secure future for our people and planet; and of our ability to live
together in our communities, our country, and our world. It is a threat to all
of us as members of society. Overcoming a Trump Coup is Social Self-Defense.
Notes
1. From the Spanish autogolpe, used to
describe cases in Latin America in the early 1960s. Sharp and Jenkins,
Anti-Coup, p. 6. https://novact.org/2012/09/the-anti-coup-bruce-jenkins-and-gene-sharp/?lang=en.
2.
The
term “Social Self-Defense” has its origin in the Polish Committee for Social
Self-Defense which led to the creation of the Solidarity trade union and
ultimately the dissolution of Poland’s Communist dictatorship. I have used it
before to characterize the Trump Resistance. Jeremy Brecher, “Social
Self-Defense: Protecting People and Planet against Trump and Trumpism,” https://www.labor4sustainability.org/uncategorized/social-self-defense-protecting-people-and-planet-against-trump-and-trumpism/.
3.
Gene
Sharp, Waging Nonviolent Struggle (Boston: Porter
Sargent, 2005). Gene Sharp & Bruce Jenkins, The Anti-Coup (Boston: The Albert Einstein
Institution). Sharp’s magisterial three-volume The Politics of
Nonviolent Action (Boston: Porter Sargent) lays out how and why
nonviolent direct action is able to work.
4.
Steven
Zunes, Civil Resistance Against Coups: A Comparative and Historical
Perspective (ICNC Monograph Series) https://www.nonviolent-conflict.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Stephen-Zunes-Monograph_Final.pdf.
5.
Joshua
Paulson, “People Power Against the Philippine Dictator – 1986,” in Gene
Sharp, Waging Nonviolent Struggle (Boston: Porter Sargent,
2005), Ibid.
6.
“Preventing
a Disrupted Presidential Election and Transition,” Transition Integrity
Project, August 3, 2020. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7013152/Preventing-a-Disrupted-Presidential-Election-and.pdf and
Rosa Brooks, “What’s the worst that could happen? The election will likely
spark violence – and a constitutional crisis,” Washington Post,
September 3, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/09/03/trump-stay-in-office/?arc404=true.
7.
Barton
Gellman, “What If Trump Refuses to Concede?,” The Atlantic,
pre-released in late September from November, 2020 issue. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/ Much
of the same material is covered and confirmed with additional details in David
Smith, “Recipe for Chaos,” The Guardian, September 27, 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/27/recipe-for-chaos-2020-election-threatens-snap-us-already-pushed-limit.
8.
Hardy
Merriman, Ankur Asthana, Marium Navid, Kifah Shah. Hold the Line: A
Guide to Defending Democracy. version 1.1. 2020. http://holdthelineguide.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Hold-The-Line_-A-Guide-to-Defending-Democracy.pdf.
9.
Bill
Fletcher, Jr. and Jose Alejandro La Luz, “Organized Labor and the ‘Cold Civil
War,’” Portside, September 17, 2020. https://portside.org/2020-09-17/organized-labor-and-cold-civil-war.
10. The Trump Resistance and other mass
opposition to Trump and Trumpism is recounted in Jeremy Brecher, Strike! Revised,
Expanded, and Updated Edition (Oakland CA: PM Press, 2020) Chapter 12,
“Harbingers.” https://www.pmpress.org/index.php?l=product_detail&p=1085.
11. Larry Buchanan, Quoctrung Bui, Jugal K.
Patel, “Black Lives Matter May Be the Largest Movement in U.S. History,” The
New York Times, July 3, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html.
12. Sam Stein, “The Left Secretly Preps for
MAGA Violence After Election Day,” The Daily Beast, September 8,
2020. https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-left-secretly-preps-for-violence-after-election-day .
Developing efforts against a Trump Coup are also described in Sasha Abramsky,
“Is Trump Planning a Coup d’État?,” The Nation, September 7,
2020. https://www.thenation.com/article/society/trump-coup-elections-gop/.
13. Sam Stein.
14. Richard Trumka, “We Will Not Tolerate
Any Constitutional Breach,” AFL-CIO, September 25,
2020. https://aflcio.org/press/releases/trumka-we-will-not-tolerate-any-constitutional-breach.
15. Jennifer Steinhauer and Helene Cooper,
“At Pentagon, Fears Grow That Trump Will Pull Military into Election
Unrest,” New York Times, September 25, 2020. https://portside.org/2020-09-25/pentagon-fears-grow-trump-will-pull-military-election-unrest.