Tuesday, 23 February 2016
2 to 1 Margin for Remaining in the EU - British Poll
The Independent reports an opinion poll today by psephologist Professor John Curtis, which shows 60% of British people surveyed will vote to remain in the European Union (EU). 30% want to leave and 10% are undecided.
The poll was apparently carried out a couple of months ago, but with a large sample of 4,328 people, and Curtis' good track record on polling (his exit poll at last year's General Election, was by far the accurate in predicting the actual result), I don't think these findings should be dismissed lightly.
Although two thirds of those surveyed are unhappy with the EU, only 24% of people think we would be better off if we left. This chimes with my own feelings on the matter, and apparently, so I hear, private polling and focus group findings for the Remain campaign draw mainly the same conclusions.
You will have heard the Prime Minister, David Cameron 'banging on about' how leaving would be a 'leap in the dark', and he has got this from the focus group findings. When asked to describe the prospect of leaving, unprompted, the most common phrase people use is a'leap in the dark.'
My feeling has always been that faced with the choice, most British people will vote to stay. It is almost always so with referendums, people need to be very committed to go against the grain, or be convinced that change will be beneficial. Better the devil you know, kind of thing.
Of course there are four months to go until the referendum vote, so things could change, but my gut instinct is that the British will vote to remain. Why take a chance?