Is the Tory Party About to Split in Two?

In my lifetime, I can’t remember the Conservative party being so close to splitting, as it is now. When John Major was leader and prime minister in the 1990s, he had plenty of trouble from a fair sized section of his back bench MPs over his signing of the Masstrict Treaty, but I don’t remember there being any appetite for a formal split in the party. The Tories are normally good at sticking together, but things may well have changed.

The Guardian reports that Sajjad Karim, the party’s MEP for North-West England, said the Conservatives had to decide between being a “genuine one nation force” or “an English nationalist movement.” Former attorney general Dominic Grieve, has said he would leave the party if Boris Johnson were elected leader. Another ex-minister and MP Anna Soubry told the New Statesman that she “would consider joining a new "moderate, sensible, forward-thinking political party.” All of these people are from the liberal wing of the Tory party.

Meanwhile the prime minister, Theresa May has written a letter to all members of the party in a desperate attempt to sell her Brexit Chequer’s plan to the rank and file, which is very unpopular with them, to say the least. ‘Theresa May faces Tory civil war after step taken towards investigation into Boris Johnson's niqab comments’ is the headline in The Independent.

Grieve’s worst nightmare may well come true, with Boris Johnson’s approval ratings soaring and he is now clear favourite amongst members to succeed Theresa May as leader. Members get the final say on two candidates selected by MPs in the Tory party system for electing leaders.

Of course the fracture is caused by Brexit, where a fundamental difference of political philosophy, largely about international trade, is tearing the Tories apart. It can be seen in differences in the attitude of business leaders too, with most businesses not wanting to see barriers to trade with Europe, but with some like James Dyson taking a different view, and espousing more far flung world trade. He has relocated his manufacturing business from the UK to Malaysia.

I think it is probably true to say, that the current crisis in the Tory party is the worst since the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846. The Corn Laws were tariffs and other trade restrictions on imported food and corn (grain), which led to food price rises and restricted growth in other sectors like manufacturing, with less disposable income left after food supplies were purchased.

Tory prime minister, Sir Robert Peel, repealed the laws by overcoming opposition in his own party by enlisting the support of the ‘Whigs’ (later Liberals) in Parliament. The Tories were dominated at the time by wealthy rural landowners who had an interest in keeping food prices high. This was the beginning of the Tory party’s devotion to ‘free trade.'

Here we have history repeating itself, certainly as farce in many ways, rather than tragedy, with the personal leadership ambitions of Boris Johnson thrown into the mix. The right of the Tory party, which includes the most hard line Brexiters, would like to see the complete removal of tariffs, by way of a free trade agreements with countries around the world, at the very least for a few years after we leave the European Union. They argue that this will bring prices down and therefore stimulate demand.

There is a logic to this, as some countries have lower standards of worker’s rights, and environmental concerns are disregarded. The logic extends, by definition to remove these protections we have now in the UK too, to remain competitive in the free for all market place.  

The 'one nation force' to which Karim refers to is the notion first advocated by Benjamin Disreali, Tory prime minister (1868). He devised it to appeal to working-class men as a solution to worsening divisions in society through introducing factory and health acts, as well as greater protection for workers.

The Tory party took this approach in the post world war 2 welfare capitalism consensus, and was only abandoned by Margaret Thatcher in the late 1970s. Successors as Tory prime ministers, John Major and David Cameron claimed to be one nation Conservatives, but their policies were the same as Thatcher's. Theresa May also claimed to be a one nation Tory on assuming leadership of the party, but has failed to live up to the claim.

The crunch will come in the autumn I think, when decisions have to be taken about our future relationship with Europe, which could ignite an explosion in the Tory party. 

Should Green Writers Boycott Left Foot Forward Over Anti-Semitism Smear Story?

A post on the website Left Foot Forward claiming that Shahrar Ali, one of the current candidates for the leadership of the Green party, and a former deputy leader, is anti-Semitic has caused outrage among grass root members of the party. The post, which has been through several edits from what was originally posted on 3 August, is a fine example of bad journalism and pretty much a textbook case of fake news. The full video of the speech is now displayed.

Highly selective quotations from a speech by Ali were first posted, from a 2009 rally against Israeli military forces attacking the Gaza strip, Operation Cast Lead, where about 1,500 Palestinian civilians were killed, were used. Ali’s speech was aimed at supporters of the Israeli action in western countries, but was twisted by the Left Foot Forward website to imply it was aimed at Jewish people more generally. The story is confected.

Mainstream media in the guise of the London Evening Standard, which has been running anti-Semitic themed attacks on the Labour party, amongst other themes, on an almost daily basis for the past couple of years, has now run the story. The paper is edited by former Tory chancellor George Osborne.

The Left Foot Forward post reports a complaint to the Green party by the Campaign Against Antisemitism, a group that was formed in 2014 to challenge anti-Semitism in the UK, which has frequently complained about Labour party members, including the leader, Jeremy Corbyn. The Green party has said that it is looking into the matter.

Quite why a website like Left Foot Forward is spreading a reheated story and video used by the Alt-Right Breitbart news network is something of a mystery to me. What is so Left about spreading right-wing smears and propaganda? Is this what the trade unions funding Left Foot Forward had in mind when setting up the site? You do have to wonder.

The piece was written by Left Foot Forward editor, Josiah Mortimer, a Labour party member who supports Corbyn’s leadership, and former Green party member, who became editor about twelve months ago. So, again I’m left wondering why should someone with that kind of politics write such a post? What is the motivation?

The story has topical value of course, with voting still open in the Green party elections for leader and other roles until the end of August. The only thing that I can think of is it is a desperate attempt to raise the viewing figures of his website with sensationalist, but inaccurate news stories. Are the numbers down or something?

I know Shahrar, and he is a passionate anti-racism campaigner who champions the cause of the oppressed, often the Palestinians, by questioning the role of the Israeli state in such oppression. He is not anti-Semitic, he is anti the terrible human rights record of the state of Israel and its military forces, quite rightly. The Israeli lobby is quick to call people anti-Semitic when Israel is criticised, as a tactic to silence those who oppose their actions, but I am shocked that a left-wing website would support this kind of bullying.

Genuine anti-Semitism should not be tolerated, and likening the actions of Israel to the Nazi’s is inaccurate, and given historical events, is grossly insensitive and should be avoided. But that is not case with this story anyway, where Ali did no such thing. Although, you would be forgiven for thinking that it was, by reading Mortimer’s post.

Plenty of Green party people have contributed to Left Foot Forward, Caroline Lucas, Jenny Jones, Natalie Bennett and indeed this writer. We should ask ourselves this question though, 'do I want to be associated with a media outlet that peddles fake news like this, and is aimed at smearing the Green party?' Reputation in politics is something that can be tarnished easily and is often judged on who you associate with. It can be difficult to restore.  

Earth's Carbon Concentrations Have Soared to Levels Not Seen in 800,000 Years

Written by Jessica Corbett and first published at Common Dreams

One NOAA oceanographer warns that even if humanity "stopped the greenhouse gases at their current concentrations today, the atmosphere would still continue to warm for the next couple decades to maybe a century."

As temperatures bust heat records across the globe and wildfires rage from California to the Arctic, a new report produced annually by more than 500 scientists worldwide found that last year, the carbon dioxide concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere reached the highest levels "in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800,000 years."

While the most significant jump was the global average for carbon dioxide (CO2)—which, at 405.0 parts per million (ppm), saw a 2.2 ppm increase from the previous year—concentrations of other dominant planet-warming greenhouse gases, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), also hit "record highs," according to State of the Climate in 2017 (pdf) released on Wednesday.

Considering those rates, Greg Johnson, an oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle, warned that even if humanity "stopped the greenhouse gases at their current concentrations today, the atmosphere would still continue to warm for next couple of decades to maybe a century."

The 332-page report—which was overseen by NOAA and published as a special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society—also notes that 2017 is among the three hottest years ever, taking the top spot for warmest non-El Niño year since scientists began measuring in the 1800s. However, NOAA data released last weekend shows that 2018 is on track to set a new record.

The report details how "much-warmer-than-average conditions" across much of the world's lands and oceans has meant three years of "unprecedented" coral bleaching, Arctic air temperatures that are "warming at a pace that was twice the rate of the rest of the world," rapidly melting glaciers and ice sheets, and devastating tropical storms—such as Hurricanes Irma and Maria—that reflect "the very active state of the Atlantic basin."

In its regional analyses, the report notes that "the United States was impacted by 16 weather and climate events that each caused over $1 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. Since records began in 1980, 2017 is tied with 2011 for the greatest number of billion-dollar disasters. Included in this total are the western U.S. wildfire season and Hurricanes Harvey, Maria, and Irma. Tornado activity in the United States in 2017 was above average for the first time since 2011, with 1,400 confirmed tornadoes."

It also features a map that highlights notable climate anomalies and events across the globe during 2017. The graphic points out that both Argentina and Uruguay experienced their warmest years on record while Russia experienced its second wettest, and five of six observatories in Alaska documented record high permafrost temperatures.

Permafrost is a layer of soil, rock, or sediment that remains frozen and contains massive amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Climate scientists are growing increasingly concerned that "as the global thermostat rises, permafrost, rather than storing carbon, could become a significant source of planet-heating emissions."

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Is the UK Going to Join the EEA as a post-Brexit Backstop?

The Financial Times reported (paywall) on Thursday that the environment secretary, Michael Gove, privately discussed the UK joining the European Economic Area (EEA) with liberal Tory MPs and Peers, as a backstop plan for Brexit. Gove, who supported the prime minister, Theresa May’s, Chequers plan for Brexit suggested that the UK could be ‘parked’ in the EEA, to avoid a no deal exit from the European Union (EU), at least for a temporary period.

The idea is remarkably similar to the one floated by Paul Goodman on the Tory grassroots website Conservative Home a couple of weeks ago. Gove raised the possibility at a private dinner with about 20 Tory Parliamentarians on June 25, as he ran through various options in the event of Mrs May being unable to agree a deal in Brussels before March next year. He is not alone in thinking that the Chequers plan will be rejected by the EU, as the noises coming out of the European Commission have not been positive. Nor from the Tory grassroots, where it is seen as a sell-out.

As one Tory activist puts it below the line:

‘This is about the worst Tory Cabinet I can remember. They don’t know what they are doing; they don’t know where they are going and they don’t have a clue about what their destination is - on Brexit or pretty much anything else. They are simply incompetent and incapable.

There is not one area of policy where you can say the Government is doing a good job - Brexit, transport, the economy, health, welfare, immigration, defence etc - and at Chequers they were all driven like sheep to produce a worthless agreement that is a national embarrassment. No one has a good word to say about it - not even May.’

It is hard to see many of these people supporting EEA membership, even temporarily though.

Gove was a prominent supporter of the Leave campaign during the referendum in 2016, but is said to have become increasingly concerned that the UK will not actually leave the EU at all, with all of the complications of leaving now exposed the public. There does seem to have been a shift in public opinion with the idea of a second referendum, with an option to remain in the EU, on the voting paper gaining ground. More Tory MPs from the more liberal wing of the party also seem to be coming around to the idea of a second ballot.

I can’t see that we will crash out of the EU without a post Brexit deal, but the default position of remaining in the EU is the most likely scenario if we don’t. There is no support in Parliament for a no deal Brexit, with an extension of the transition period to more than the just under two years already agreed with the EU also likely, but perhaps joining the EEA is the most sensible thing to do in the circumstances? The option of temporary EEA membership might appeal to the majority of Tory MPs, as a way out of the current crisis.

Britain would be out of the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy, and would have some latitude on trade deals that the Chequers plan does not deliver. Free movement of people would have to continue, but an ‘emergency brake’ could be put on immigration from the EU, on a temporary basis (which EU rules allow now anyway), which conceivably could extend to whole period of EEA membership.

As Goodman points out: ‘All in all, if Conservative MPs believe that no deal with the EU, or a deal that is defeated in the Commons, would be followed either by a Doomsday Brexit or by no Brexit at all, they can only conclude that the risks of gambling on this Plan B are less than the risks of sticking with Plan A and with the Prime Minister.’   

But what of the Labour party, would Labour MPs also support EEA membership? The Labour leadership has already ruled out joining the EEA, saying that it is not suitable for the UK, and whipped their MPs to vote against an amendment to the government’s White Paper which would have committed us joining the EEA. Some MPs rebelled, but the majority voted against.

But this amendment was not for a temporary period, and Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit spokesperson, has said in the past that the UK should remain in the EU in a transitional phase of about four years, but that we should remain ‘as long as is necessary.’ Gove’s plan doesn’t look too dissimilar to what Starmer has said. 

Whether Labour would ease the political problems the Tories are in at the moment, is a moot point. Labour sees defeating the government over its Brexit plans as the quickest way to gain power. Politics works this way, I’m afraid, so I would be surprised if Labour backed this idea.

If the EEA idea does make it through Parliament, it would mean the end for Theresa May, but perhaps Michael Gove is positioning himself to replace her as prime minister? This is also how politics works, unfortunately.

Could the UK be Self-Sufficient in Food After Brexit?

With stories circulating about the British government stockpiling food, as part of a plan to cover the eventuality of a no deal Brexit, there is talk that the UK should become more self-sufficient in food once we leave the European Union (EU). Of course all this would take time, certainly longer than by our exit from the EU, which will happen in eight months’ time. But as a longer term objective, this would surely be a sensible thing to do. It would avoid tailbacks at ports and environmentally concerned people should welcome it, too. But is it feasable?

Britain has not been self-sufficient in food since the eighteenth century (when all of Ireland was included), and even then some foods were imported. During world war two the country was close to being self-sufficient in food, but rationing was introduced in 1940 and didn’t fully end until 1954. Some lessons might be learned from some of the practices employed, especially making more land available for farming, from this emergency period.

According to the UK government’s figures, in 2016, Britons consumed only 49% of the total food and drink consumed in this country, from UK food sources. Of the other 51%, by far the biggest imports (30%) came from the EU. Some of the food produced in the UK is of course exported, but this only amounts to about 25% of the total produced. So, even if we stopped exporting food, we would still have about a quarter of what is needed to make up. The trade deficit in food, feed and drink increased in 2016 to £22.2 billion, up from £20.9 billion in 2015.

So replacing this amount of imported food would take some doing, but I think it is possible to get close to it. It will require a massive restructuring of UK farming in particular though, but it would also need a complete change in the culture surrounding food consumption, from the British people themselves. We have become so used to getting unseasonal food when we want it, and have long had a taste for fruit, tea and coffee, that is difficult to grow naturally in the British climate.

Agriculture in the UK uses 69% of the country's land area, (43 million acres) but this includes land used for growing biofuels. It is certainly possible, with the will, to increase this amount land with more small holdings, in cities and towns, and people could be encouraged grow their own food in gardens and allotments. Organic farming in Cuba has moved in this direction since the collapse of the USSR, when chemicals and pesticides stopped being provided to Cuban farmers.

Britain is an island of course, and so has access to fishing, and we don’t eat nearly enough locally caught fish at the moment. But people’s tastes have moved towards warmer water fish, like tuna and monkfish, myself included. There would certainly be extra capacity in UK off shore fishing, but will people want to eat it? In world war two just about the only food that wasn’t rationed, was fish and chips, but people got fed up with rationing generally. That was over sixty years ago, and much has changed in food fashions since then.

There is no doubt, that a vegan, vegetarian, pescatarian or even low meat diet would make food self-sufficiency much easier to achieve. Beef and dairy farming especially is an unproductive use of farming land. But again, the popular food culture of Big Macs etc, make for a huge barrier to reducing the demand for beef products.

With the average age of a farm owner now 59, and with the difficulties getting crop pickers etc as we leave the EU, it doesn’t look as though the British like farming much anyway.

I can’t see why we couldn’t be more self-sufficient while remaining within the EU, since we sell off 30% of our fishing quota to all bidders now, for example. Brexit may well force this issue onto the agenda though, but is self-sufficiency in food the likely outcome? I have to say I think not, at least in the medium term. People want things to carry on exactly as they have done. The demand will be filled mainly from North America, Australia and New Zealand, (probably with lower hygiene standards) rather than from our closest neighbours, Ireland, France and the Netherlands, as currently.

There is no reason why ecosocialists and greens should not campaign for more food self-sufficiency, but we should at least recognise that it is a mountain to climb, mainly because of the British people’s prevailing cultural attitudes to food. It would be easier to keep our existing arrangements with the EU, but that may not be possible.             

Hottest Four Years Ever? 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018?

Wild Fires in the Arctic Circle in Sweden July 2018

First published at Common Dreams

According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2018 is on pace to be the fourth hottest year on record. Only three other years have been hotter: 2015, 2016 and 2017.

"The impacts of climate change are no longer subtle," Michael Mann, a climate scientist and director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University, told CNN.

"We are seeing them play out in real time in the form of unprecedented heat waves, floods, droughts and wildfires. And we've seen them all this summer," he said.

Even more than extreme weather, climate change is best exemplified by the consistent rise in temperatures year after year.

New NOAA data released Friday shows:

NOAA shows that the first half of 2018 was characterized by warmer to much-warmer-than-average conditions across the Earth's land and ocean surfaces. Record warmth was present across portions of the global oceans as well as parts of the Mediterranean Sea and surrounding areas. New Zealand and small areas across North America, Asia and Australia also had record warm year-to-date temperatures. Cooler-than-average conditions were limited to the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, central tropical Indian Ocean, the North Atlantic Ocean, and parts of western Russia and eastern Canada. No land or ocean areas had record cold January–June temperatures.

Averaged as a whole, the combined land and ocean surface temperature for the globe during January–June 2018 was 0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average and the fourth highest since global records began in 1880. The global land-only temperature was the fifth highest on record at +1.19°C (+2.14°F). The global ocean-only temperature of 0.60°C (1.08°F) above average was also the fifth highest on record.

Five of six continents had a January–June temperature that ranked among the ten warmest such period on record. Europe, Africa, and Oceania had a January–June temperature that ranked among the five highest since continental records began in 1910.

Climate scientists sounded alarms this week as reports circulated of extreme weather and record-breaking high temperatures all over the globe, with dozens of deaths and thousands of hospitalizations reported in some countries—while one journalist with a major platform on corporate cable news admitted the news media's failure to give serious attention to the link between the climate crisis and such events.

"There is no doubt that the prolonged extreme temperatures and floods we are witnessing around the world right now are a result of climate change," said Caroline Rance, climate campaigner for Friends of the Earth Scotland. "Temperature records are being broken across the U.K. and globally, exactly as climate science has long warned, and with devastating consequences."

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Will the British Public Really Blame the EU for a No Deal Brexit?

Jeremy Hunt, the newly appointed British Foreign Secretary, claimed yesterday on a visit to Berlin, that the British public will blame the European Union (EU) if Britain leaves the organisation without a post-leaving deal. He said, should this be the case his ‘real concern is that it would change British public attitudes to Europe for a generation.’ He perhaps means the older generation, but would this really be the case generally?

There is no doubt that the British government would try to shift the blame onto the EU, eagerly aided and abetted by the right wing media, of Mail, Express, Sun and Telegraph. Members of the public who are fans of the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson, will probably take this line too, but this not the vast majority of people.

What of the 16 million people who voted to Remain in the EU two years ago? What about the 27% of registered voters who didn’t bother to turn out to vote, and those who were not registered to vote? What of the British nationals living in the EU? What about British businesses who will lose money and their workers who are made redundant? What of those people who voted to leave, but now regret their decision?

These groups are much less likely to blame the EU, and more likely to blame the British government. Even amongst leave voters who still want Britain to leave, might some of these people blame the Tories for botching the process of leaving through incompetence? Especially, if the dire predictions of chaos on 30 March 2019,come to pass.

You have to remember that there was no clamour for a referendum on leaving the EU in the country, only in the Tory party. Yes, UKIP were picking up votes, at that stage mainly from the Tories, but they didn’t win any seats in Parliament, other than from a defector from the Tory party. Our membership of the EU has been a running sore in the Tory party for at least since the early 1990s and the arguments over the Treaty of Maastricht. John Major’s Tory party was riddled with division about Britain signing up.

This is why David Cameron had to offer a referendum when he became leader of the Tory party and prime minister. Cameron was of course in coalition with the pro EU Lib Dems at the time, and thought he would never have to follow through on the referendum promise, because the Lib Dems would block it. Surprisingly, he won an outright majority for the Tories in 2015, and had to hold to it.

The handling of Brexit has been a textbook exercise in rank incompetence, as the in-fighting in the Tory party continues, while the country is going to the dogs. The Tories don’t care about the country though, only their own fixation with the EU. If things do go terribly wrong, which is certainly more than a possibility at the moment, I think many people will know who is truly to blame. For the sake of unity in the Tory party, the nation is being torn apart in an almost casually reckless fashion.

But even if Hunt is right and I am wrong, how would this anti-EU sentiment materialise? Will the British stop holidaying in Spain, stop buying German cars and stop buying French wine and cognac? I somehow doubt it, although all of these things are likely to become more expensive. Some people though may turn to violence against EU nationals, even if they have become British citizens, but people like that should not be placated.

Hunt’s comments could be taken as an encouragement to act violently, which is another example of the government’s reckless approach. Hate crimes have already rocketed since the referendum which the government’s style in the handling of Brexit has surely played a part. I just hope we are rid of this government before it is too late to salvage the situation, which in practice probably means by the autumn.